Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales
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Material Information

Title:
Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales
Series Title:
Nature Climate Change
Creator:
P.J. Gleckler
B.D. Santer
C.M. Domingues
D.W. Pierce
T.P. Barnett
J.A. Church
K.E. Taylor
K.M. AchutaRao
T.P. Boyer
M. Ishii
P.M. Caldwell
Affiliation:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory -- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory -- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Antarctic and Climate Ecosystems and Cooperative Research Centre
Scripps Institution of Oceanography -- Climate Research Division
Scripps Institution of Oceanography -- Climate Research Division
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and Wealth from Oceans Flaghsip -- CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory -- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Indian Institute of Technology
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -- National Oceanographic Data Center
Climate Research Department -- Meteorological Research Institute
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory -- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Publisher:
Macmillan Publishers Limited
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
climate change
ocean temperature
global warming

Notes

Abstract:
Large-scale increases in upper-ocean temperatures are evident in observational records1. Several studies have used well-established detection and attribution methods to demonstrate that the observed basin-scale temperature changes are consistent with model responses to anthropogenic forcing and inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural variability2–5. These studies relied on a single observational data set and employed results from only one or two models. Recent identification of systematic instrumental biases6 in expendable bathythermograph data has led to improved estimates of ocean temperature variability and trends7–9 and provide motivation to revisit earlier detection and attribution studies.We examine the causes of ocean warming using these improved observational estimates, together with results from a large multimodel archive of externally forced and unforced simulations. The time evolution of upper ocean temperature changes in the newer observational estimates is similar to that of the multimodel average of simulations that include the effects of volcanic eruptions. Our detection and attribution analysis systematically examines the sensitivity of results to a variety of model and data-processing choices. When global mean changes are included, we consistently obtain a positive identification (at the 1% significance level) of an anthropogenic fingerprint in observed upper-ocean temperature changes, thereby substantially strengthening existing detection and attribution evidence.

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
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