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|a Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales |h [electronic resource]. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2012. |
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|a Nature Climate Change. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Large-scale increases in upper-ocean temperatures are evident
in observational records1. Several studies have used
well-established detection and attribution methods to demonstrate
that the observed basin-scale temperature changes
are consistent with model responses to anthropogenic forcing
and inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural
variability2–5. These studies relied on a single observational
data set and employed results from only one or two models.
Recent identification of systematic instrumental biases6
in expendable bathythermograph data has led to improved
estimates of ocean temperature variability and trends7–9 and
provide motivation to revisit earlier detection and attribution
studies.We examine the causes of ocean warming using these
improved observational estimates, together with results from
a large multimodel archive of externally forced and unforced
simulations. The time evolution of upper ocean temperature
changes in the newer observational estimates is similar to
that of the multimodel average of simulations that include the
effects of volcanic eruptions. Our detection and attribution
analysis systematically examines the sensitivity of results to
a variety of model and data-processing choices. When global
mean changes are included, we consistently obtain a positive
identification (at the 1% significance level) of an anthropogenic
fingerprint in observed upper-ocean temperature changes,
thereby substantially strengthening existing detection and
attribution evidence. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15060338/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/06/03/38/00001/FI15060338_thm.jpg |
