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|a Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity |h [electronic resource] |b CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Meteorological Society, |c 2013-02-08. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Twenty-first century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the
robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multi-model ensembles using the
CMIP3/A1B (Late 21st century) and CMIP5/RCP4.5 (Early and Late 21st 23 century) scenarios are
examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among
the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-km regional and 50-km grid global models. Storm cases from the regional model are further
downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model (9 km inner-grid spacing, with ocean coupling) to
simulate intense hurricanes at finer resolution. A significant reduction in tropical storm frequency is projected for the CMIP3 (-27%),
CMIP5-Early (-20%) and CMIP5-Late (-23%) ensembles, and for five of ten individual CMIP3
models. Lifetime-maximum hurricane intensity increases significantly in the high-resolution
experiments--by 4 to 6% for CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. A significant increase (+87%) in
the frequency of very intense (Category 4-5) hurricanes (winds >= 59 m s-133 ) is projected using
CMIP3, but smaller, only marginally significant increases are projected (+45% and +39%) for
the CMIP5-Early and CMIP5-Late scenarios. Hurricane rainfall rates increase robustly for the
CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios. For the late 21st century, this increase amounts to +20 to +30% in
the model hurricane’s inner core, with a smaller increase (~10%) for averaging radii of 200 km
or larger. The fractional increase in precipitation at large radii (200-400 km) approximates that
expected from environmental water vapor content scaling, while increases for the inner core
exceed this level. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052543/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/25/43/00001/FI15052543thm.jpg |
