Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Climate Change

Permanent Link:: http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15052537/00001

Material Information

Title:: Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Climate Change
Creator:: Kenneth E. Kunkel
Thomas R. Karl
David R. Easterling
Kelly Redmond
John Young
Xungang Yin
Paula Hennon
Affiliation:: North Carolina State University -- NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites
NOAA National Climatic Data Center
NOAA National Climatic Data Center
Desert Research Institute
University of Wisconsin -- Madison
ERT, INC.
North Carolina State University -- NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites
Publisher:: American Geophysical Union
Publication Date:: 2013
Language:: English

Subjects / Keywords:: climate change
precipitation forecasting
meteorology
storms

Abstract:: Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the greatest accumulation of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for an area. Climate change effects on PMP are analyzed, in particular, maximization of moisture and persistent upward motion, using both climate model simulations and conceptual models of relevant meteorological systems. Climate model simulations indicate a substantial future increase in mean and maximum water vapor concentrations. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes in maximum values for the continental United States are approximately 20–30% by 2071–2100. The magnitudes of the maximum water vapor changes follow temperature changes with an approximate Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Model-simulated changes in maximum vertical and horizontal winds are too small to offset water vapor changes. Thus, our conclusion is that the most scientifically sound projection is that PMP values will increase in the future due to higher levels of atmospheric moisture content and consequent higher levels of moisture transport into storms.

Source Institution:: Florida International University
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