Climate change and land use in Florida
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Material Information

Title:
Climate change and land use in Florida Interdependencies and opportunities
Creator:
Stephen Mulkey
Affiliation:
University of Florida -- Department of Botany
Publisher:
Century Commission for a Sustainable Florida
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Notes

Scope and Content:
Anthropogenic climate change is now widely regarded as possibly the most significant challenge facing humanity. Climate change over the next 100 years and beyond will affect virtually every aspect of living systems in Florida and the world. In June 2005, eleven of the worlds leading national academies of science issued a joint statement noting that it is imperative that we aggressively mitigate the causes of climate change and prepare to adapt to a changing climate. On February 2, 2007, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its fourth assessment report (AR4) of the physical science of the earth’s climate stating that “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid 20th Century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” The panel stated further that the “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” and that there is “very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.” This report from Working Group I was followed in subsequent months by assessments of impacts (Working Group II) and recommendations for measures that could stabilize the climate system through mitigation of the greenhouse gases (Working Group III). Over the last 100 years, the earth’s atmosphere has warmed about 1.4oF (Hansen et al. 2005). There is broad scientific consensus that the greenhouse gases (GHGs) must be reduced 60 to 80 percent relative to 2000 levels by 2050 (Socolow and Pacala 2004) to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate change (Hansen et al. 2007), including sea-level rise of 3 ft or more (Rahmstorf 2007). Failure to mitigate anthropogenic climate change could cost the human economy up to 20 percent of annual world gross domestic product by 2100, arguably resulting in one of the greatest market failures in history (Stern et al. 2006). One effect of these assessments has been to move policy makers toward efforts to reduce the production of GHGs and increase the potential for natural and managed systems to mitigate climate change. Although Europe and the UK have made significant progress toward developing tools for mitigation, the US has only recently begun to develop such programs, largely through action at the state level. Responding to this call, Governor Charlie Crist in his first state-of-the-state address proclaimed that Florida should become a “leader” in addressing climate change, explicitly targeting Florida’s GHG emissions as a focus of the state’s efforts. Since 2000, 20 states have created or begun development of state climate action plans. As recently mandated by the legislature, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection is conducting a greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory for the state. The Governor recently committed Florida to join a coalition of states belonging to a climate registry, and in July 2007, hosted a climate summit in Miami to bring together stakeholders, scientists and prominent politicians. The Florida Energy Commission and other state agencies are developing additional plans. Progress toward development of sustainable use of Florida’s social, natural, and economic resources will be largely determined by how we respond to climate change. In the following I will outline components of a state climate action plan as they relate to land use. Such a plan should include more than the obvious elements of a GHG inventory and tools for mitigation. Because of significant warming latent in the earth’s climate, we must also plan for inevitable climate change. Thus elements of adaptation should be part of any such plan. Here I will discuss specific areas related to land use where Florida can enhance resilience in the face of anticipated changes in climate, while developing the capacity to participate in carbon markets and support economic development of the state.

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
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Sea Level Rise