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|a IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration |h [electronic resource] |b Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline |y English. |
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|a [S.l.] : |b American Geophysical Union, |c 2011-09-29. |
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|a Journal of Geophysical Research Volume 116. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a IPCC climate models underestimate the decrease of the Arctic sea ice extent. The
recent Arctic sea ice decline is also characterized by a rapid thinning and by an increase of
sea ice kinematics (velocities and deformation rates), with both processes being coupled
through positive feedbacks. In this study we show that IPCC climate models underestimate
the observed thinning trend by a factor of almost 4 on average and fail to capture the
associated accelerated motion. The coupling between the ice state (thickness and
concentration) and ice velocity is unexpectedly weak in most models. In particular, sea ice
drifts faster during the months when it is thick and packed than when it is thin, contrary to
what is observed; also models with larger long‐term thinning trends do not show higher
drift acceleration. This weak coupling behavior (1) suggests that the positive feedbacks
mentioned above are underestimated and (2) can partly explain the models’
underestimation of the recent sea ice area, thickness, and velocity trends. Due partly to this
weak coupling, ice export does not play an important role in the simulated negative
balance of Arctic sea ice mass between 1950 and 2050. If we assume a positive trend on
ice speeds at straits equivalent to the one observed since 1979 within the Arctic basin,
first‐order estimations give shrinking and thinning trends that become significantly closer
to the observations. |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15050355/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/03/55/00001/FI15050355_thm.jpg |
