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005        20171030113216.0
006        m^^^^^o^^d^^^^^^^^
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245 00 |a Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase |h [electronic resource].
260        |a [S.l.] : |b Macmillan Publishers Limited, |c 2014.
490        |a Nature Climate Change |b Articles.
506        |a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.
520 3    |a The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they represent only one realization where the decadal natural variability component of the model climate is generally not in phase with observations. We present a more appropriate test of models where only those models with natural variability (represented by El Niño/Southern Oscillation) largely in phase with observations are selected from multi-model ensembles for comparison with observations. These tests show that climate models have provided good estimates of 15-year trends, including for recent periods and for Pacific spatial trend patterns.
533        |a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software.
600        |a. |x El Nino current
650        |a climate change.
650        |a long-range weather forecasting.
651        |a Pacific Ocean.
700        |a James S. Risbey.
700        |a Stephan Lewandowsky.
700        |a Clothilde Langlais.
700        |a Didier P. Monselesan.
700        |a Terence J. O'Kane.
700        |a Naomi Oreskes.
773 0    |t Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase
830    0 |a dpSobek.
830    0 |a Sea Level Rise.
852        |a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise
856 40 |u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15050347/00001 |y Click here for full text
856 42 |3 FULL TEXT- Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase |u https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2310 |y Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase
992 04 |a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/05/03/47/00001/FI15050347_thm.jpg
997        |a Sea Level Rise


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