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|a The 2050 target |h [electronic resource] |b achieving an 80% reduction including emissions from international aviation and shipping. |
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|a Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights. |
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|a Our report Scope of carbon budgets: Statutory advice on inclusion of international aviation and
shipping concludes that:
• Emissions from international aviation and shipping cause warming and therefore must
be managed.
• The current approach to these sectors lacks legal underpinning and should be formalised in
order to remove current uncertainties around the future interpretation of the 2050 target.
• Including these sectors in carbon budgets and the 2050 target would be the most
transparent, comprehensive and flexible approach.
• Potential complexities that we previously identified (relating to design of the EU ETS cap for
aviation and the accounting methodology for shipping) no longer exist.
In that report, we therefore recommend that international aviation and shipping should now
be included in the accounting framework of the Climate Change Act.
This technical report supports that advice by showing how an 80% 2050 target can be
achieved inclusive of emissions from international aviation and shipping based on currently
identified measures and at a cost previously accepted.
It builds on previous work in our 2011 Bioenergy Review and in our advice on carbon budgets,
adding a new approach and new analysis:
• New approach. Instead of using cost-optimising models (as in our previous work) we
develop deployment ranges for key abatement measures in each sector based on detailed
modelling of technology costs, deployment constraints and interactions within the energy
sector, as set out in Chapters 2-6 of this report. We then combine these sectoral deployment
levels to create economy-wide scenarios for 2050, identifying how an 80% reduction target
including international aviation and shipping can be met when some deployment barriers
cannot be overcome, or in the absence of key technologies.
• New analysis. We have undertaken detailed new analysis of abatement options to 2050
in the key emitting sectors (e.g. for battery costs for electric vehicles, district heating and
electrification in industry).
In analysing ways to meet the 2050 target we are not seeking to specify now the precise mix
of technologies and/or consumer behaviour change to achieve this target, which would be
neither necessary, possible nor desirable. However, it is important to establish that plausible
scenarios exist for reaching such a target and to consider their potential costs. Our specific conclusions are:
• The 2050 target is stretching and will require action across the economy. There are various
ways in which the target could be met based on currently identified measures, all of which
require deep emissions cuts through energy efficiency improvements, decarbonisation of
power generation, extensive electrification of heat and transport, and prioritised use of scarce
bioenergy to reduce (or offset) emissions from applications with few alternative abatement
options. There is scope for less than full uptake in one or two – but not all – sectors. Without
CCS or with very limited availability of sustainable bioenergy the target becomes far more
challenging although it could still be met within the technical abatement potential we identify.
Scenarios for international aviation and shipping emissions set out in our statutory advice are
feasible and desirable in the context of required reductions across the economy.
– All our scenarios involve widespread deployment of energy efficiency measures and
decarbonisation of the power sector (through a combination of nuclear, renewables
and CCS), with low-carbon electricity used to meet energy demands from heat and
surface transport. Significant abatement will also be needed from industry (e.g. through
efficiency and CCS), from aviation (e.g. from more efficient planes and moderations to
demand growth) and from measures to reduce emissions on farms and in waste disposal.
Scarce bioenergy resources should be used where they can reduce emissions most
effectively – in sectors where other abatement options are limited and in combination
with CCS to generate negative emissions.
– Our scenarios demonstrate that the target can still be met if deployment barriers prevent
full delivery in some areas. For example, we show scenarios with significant but not full
deployment of electric vehicles, with tighter constraints on heat pump applicability, with
limited use of CCS in industry, or with stronger demand growth for aviation.
– We include sensitivities where CCS is not available as an abatement option and/or where
bioenergy availability is limited. These require very deep reductions from other available
measures (e.g. electrification in industry), implying increased costs and delivery risks. We
therefore reiterate a conclusion from our Bioenergy Review that successful development
of CCS and access to bioenergy will be particularly important to achievement of the
2050 target.
– Planning assumptions for 2050 aviation emissions at around 2005 levels, and shipping
emissions roughly a third below 2010 reported levels, are appropriate in the context of
reductions required across the economy. Our estimates of the cost of meeting the 2050 target are towards the low end of those
previously accepted by Parliament when the Climate Change Act was legislated (i.e. 1-2% of
2050 GDP). A failure to accept this cost now could result in setting of insufficiently ambitious
carbon budgets. These would imply either a weakening of climate ambition or higher costs
further out in time (e.g. due to required scrapping of capital, rapid supply chain expansion,
or purchase of increasingly expensive offset credits).
• The appropriate strategy now is to aim for full deployment of all options to prepare for
deep emissions reductions across the economy. Decisions about where to focus effort can
then be made as uncertainties over costs and barriers are resolved. This is consistent with
the legislated fourth carbon budget and with the Government’s approach as set out in the
Carbon Plan.
We set out our analysis in detail in five sectoral chapters following this summary, which has
six sections:
1. Current emissions and options for abatement
2. Reducing emissions to 2030
3. Achieving an 80% 2050 target including emissions from international aviation and shipping
4. Meeting the 2050 target with limited availability of key options
5. Costs of meeting the 2050 target
6. Summary and implications for policy approach |
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|a Electronic reproduction. |c Florida International University, |d 2015. |f (dpSobek) |n Mode of access: World Wide Web. |n System requirements: Internet connectivity; Web browser software. |
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|a emissions reduction, Greenhouse gas. |
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|a Committee on Climate Change. |
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|a dpSobek |c Sea Level Rise |
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|u http://dpanther.fiu.edu/dpService/dpPurlService/purl/FI15042688/00001 |y Click here for full text |
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|a http://dpanther.fiu.edu/sobek/content/FI/15/04/26/88/00001/FI15042688_thm.jpg |
