A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise
Permanent Link:

Material Information

Title:
A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise
Series Title:
Scientific Reports Volume 3
Creator:
Rohling, Eelco J.
Haigh, Ivan D.
Foster, Gavin L.
Roberts, Andrew P.
Grant, Katharine M.
Affiliation:
The Australian National University -- Research School of Earth Sciences
University of Southampton -- College of Ocean and Earth Science
University of Southampton -- College of Ocean and Earth Science -- National Oceanography Centre
The Australian National University -- Research School of Earth Sciences
University of Southampton -- College of Ocean and Earth Science -- National Oceanography Centre
Publisher:
Scientific Reports
Publication Date:
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Climatic changes ( lcsh )
Sea level rise ( lcsh )
Emission reduction ( lcsh )
Glaciology ( lcsh )
Antarctica ( lcsh )
Greenhouse gas

Notes

Abstract:
During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to . 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of ‘normal’ processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.

Record Information

Source Institution:
Florida International University
Rights Management:
Please contact the owning institution for licensing and permissions. It is the user's responsibility to ensure use does not violate any third party rights.

dpSobek Membership

Aggregations:
Sea Level Rise